Hello. Today, I want to talk about contrarian investing—seeing through the hidden side of the market.
There is one unchanging truth in the stock and crypto markets: “A hyped-up market leaves little profit, and when retail investors swarm in, that’s almost always the peak.”
Amid the recent rosy outlooks surrounding Samsung Electronics, I want to summarize the real warning signs we need to be watching out for.
1. The Launch of Leverage ETFs: Read the Institutional ‘Exit Strategy’
Historically, right before major shifts—like the IMF crisis, the COVID-19 crash, or massive interest rate hikes—during massive bull runs, a flood of leverage ETFs always hits the market.
- Samsung 2x Long Leverage ETF launched? → That is your timing to sell everything.
- Samsung 2x Short Leverage ETF launched? → Conversely, that is the exact time to start considering a long position.
Wall Street and institutional investors need retail investors to buy as much as possible at the top to create the perfect environment for short-selling. When the masses are euphoric and screaming for leverage, we must stay cold-blooded and prepare to leave the market.
On the flip side, please keep in mind that a sustained rally can continue until these leverage products are actually launched or a stock split occurs.
2. Stock Splits: The Trap of the “People’s Stock”
If talk of a stock split emerges for Samsung Electronics or SK Hynix, you must accept that as a sell signal as well. Stock splits increase accessibility, drawing in a massive influx of retail investors, but paradoxically, this creates the absolute best environment for smart money to offload their shares.
It is the nature of the stock and crypto markets: the more retail buys, the more the price drops. The old adage, “Sell when others buy, and buy when others sell,” isn’t just a saying—it is a survival strategy.
3. My Perspective on the Current Market (More Important Than Union Strikes)
There is no need to overreact to short-term noise like the recent union strikes.
- Where is the end of this rally? Personally, I think the upward trend is highly likely to continue until we see a concrete stock split for SK Hynix or Samsung.
- Should you enter now? Honestly, I would advise against opening new positions right now. If you absolutely must enter, I strongly recommend first calculating how far a drop could go and testing your Maximum Drawdown (MDD) tolerance before diving in.
4. Conclusion: Don’t Succumb to FOMO—It’s Better Than Holding the Bag
The most dangerous thing you can do is watch prices keep climbing, get consumed by FOMO (Fear Of Missing Out), and jump in late thinking, “Am I the only one missing out?” If you let the fear of missing the rally push you into forcing a trade, you will inevitably end up heavily trapped at the peak.
The market always provides opportunities. Right now, rather than joining the euphoria, it is time to treat these upcoming financial products and corporate announcements (like stock splits) as warnings from the future. Watch them carefully and prepare for the next downtrend.
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